J.D. Power Expert Offers Insight on the Shift in the Global Automotive Industry

Tim Dunne

The global auto industry is in flux with dramatic changes and growth in emerging markets—especially in the Asia-Pacific region, according to J.D. Power’s Tim Dunne, director of global automotive industry analysis.

In a recent paper that has been published in several Standard & Poor’s publications, including CreditWeek®, Dunne discusses some of these changes and provides future forecasts and an outlook for the industry in terms of auto production, changes in technology and engineering, and the impact of these changes on the environment and the economy.

A few highlights about the Asia-Pacific market are excerpted from “The Changing Landscape of the Global Automotive Industry; A Global Shift in the Balance of Power:”

• In 2013, LMC Automotive (J.D. Power’s strategic partner) expects the Asia-Pacific region to account for 36 million light-vehicle sales, representing 43% of the world’s total. Continue reading ›

Chevrolet Achieves First-Half Global Sales Record

General Motors’ flagship Chevrolet brand this week said it delivered a record 2.5 million new vehicles worldwide in the first half of 2013—up a slight 1.4% vs. the same six-month period in 2012. Total deliveries for all GM brands in the first half were up nearly 4% from last year’s same period to 4.85 million units, from 4.67 million units a year ago.

2013 Chevrolet Spark

2013 Chevrolet Spark

Chevrolet sales topped 1.02 million units in the U.S. market—a 5.6% gain from last year, with a combined 25% increase in demand for the mass-market brand’s smaller models, including—Sonic, Spark, Cruze and Volt plug-in hybrid. Large truck sales also rose in double digits.

J.D. Power data from the Power Information Network® (PIN) and strategic partner LMC Automotive indicates that Chevrolet’s U.S. deliveries on a selling-day adjusted basis rose 8.7% in the first half from last year, which was slightly ahead of the industry’s 8.4% increase. The brand’s share in the U.S. market edged up to 18.17% from 18.15% a year ago. Five of Chevrolet’s models ranked among the 20 best-sellers—respectively, include: the Silverado, Cruze, Equinox, Malibu and Impala. Continue reading ›

World Auto Sales Set for Modest Gains in 2013

Global Auto Forecast After a 5% gain in global light-vehicle sales to 81 million units in 2012, the world outlook for 2013 from our strategic partner LMC Automotive is for slower expansion, with global sales rising by 3% to 83 million units this year. While some large markets performed solidly in 2012—notably the United States and China—the key macroeconomic risks that prevailed during 2012 look likely to persist well into 2013 with negative implications, and an unbalanced risk profile, for Europe. Regional variations will continue this year, according to Pete Kelley, managing director of LMC Automotive.

Some forecast highlights are featured from a recent issue of China Automotive Monthly—Market Trends:

More Favorable Economic Outlook to Boost China Sales in 2013

China light -vehicle sales (including imports) rose by 6.2% to 19.1 million units in 2012 from 2011, which was higher than the annual growth rate of 4.4% in 2011 vs. 2010. This advance was largely due to the phase‐out of the pay‐back effect from booming car sales in 2009-2010, and in particular the surge of the light commercial vehicle sector. Continue reading ›

Global Auto Sales Shift Hampers Reducing Vehicle Emissions

As emerging markets, led by the BRIC countries, eclipse mature markets in global auto sales growth, it will become more challenging to control or reduce emissions from vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs).

John Humphrey

A major reason is that passenger-vehicle buyers in these markets already tend to be more sensitive to price pressure than are buyers in economically mature markets, which favors the sale of traditional ICE-powered passenger vehicles. Therefore, it is unlikely that buyers in these developing markets will accept the price premium charged for hybrid-electric or battery-electric powertrains with a price differential expected to average about US $11,000.

Although some governments, such as China’s, are taking steps to reduce auto-related carbon emissions, the sheer volume of vehicles being added to the global fleet during the next decade will largely negate these efforts, which means carbon emissions and overall air quality will get worse before it gets better. Continue reading ›

Fast Forward: Our Outlook for 2011

We are looking for the global marketplace to continue to pick up. The growth rate slows a little from what we saw in 2010. We expect about a 6% increase this year—rounding to 76.5 million units worldwide. North America is expected to pick up 11% more sales and end the year at 15.5 million units. The US is forecasted to come in at 13.0 million units—up 12% from 2010. 

Jeff Schuster

The drag on global sales will continue to be in Europe. Europe is basically flat at 18.1 million units for 2011. We are expecting weakness in the southern regions of Western Europe as well as in Ireland and the UK. However, we forecast that Germany will rebound, with a projected increase of 8%. 

In Asia, China continues to be the market to watch in 2011 as light vehicle sales are expected to increase 11% to 19.0 million units. John Zeng, our director of Asian automotive forecasting at J.D. Power Asia Pacific in Shanghai, points out that China will be the driver for global market growth and says that China’s automotive market remained robust in 2010, defying all expectations that the market would slow along with the economy. Continue reading ›

Global Auto Sales Have Come A Long Way

Jeff Schuster

You can’t really look at the US  automotive market without looking at the global market. We truly are in a very global industry, where there is a lot of interaction between the regions and between the countries. 

Looking at global light-vehicle sales historically—we have come a long way. The global market in 1998 was at a little over 50 million units. From that level, there was a tremendous amount of growth through 2007, though. On a monthly basis the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) peaked in early 2008 at 73 million units before everything went south. January of 2009 was the low point at a 56 million unit selling rate.

Since then, we’ve come a long way from a global perspective, with stability through most of 2010, as the selling rate remained between 70 and 72 million units, before rising to a rate of 78 million units by December. Let’s take a look at some sales history from 2010. Continue reading ›